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    Fat Brands (FAT)

    FAT Q1 2025 Raises Cookie EBITDA Target to $25M, Eyes $300M Unlock

    Reported on May 9, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$2.88Last close (May 8, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$2.88Open (May 9, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Cookie Facility Upside: The company aims to boost the facility’s EBITDA from $15 million to $25 million per year by increasing production utilization from 40%-45% to 60%-70%, potentially generating over $300 million in proceeds for debt reduction if the target is reached.
    • Refranchising Benefit: Refranchising the Fazoli's portfolio is expected to yield a value multiple of 4x to 6x, translating to approximately $20-25 million in proceeds along with overhead savings of $2.5-3.5 million annually, thereby strengthening the balance sheet.
    • Resilient Consumer Value Proposition: Despite mixed consumer sentiment, the executives highlighted that their focus on delivering a great guest experience through value-focused initiatives gives the brands a competitive edge in challenging market conditions.
    • Litigation expenses remain elevated: Incremental litigation expenses increased in Q1, and uncertainty remains until these expenses moderate in Q2, potentially pressuring margins further.
    • Inconsistent same-store sales and traffic trends: Some segments, particularly burgers and wings, experienced standard industry-level declines in sales and traffic, indicating potential consumer weakness in key areas.
    • Delayed incremental EBITDA improvements: The timeline for generating an additional $15 million in adjusted EBITDA from new stores and the factory is over the next couple of years, implying a slower near-term turnaround.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    Declined 2.2% (from $145.3M to $142.0M)

    The minor drop suggests a seasonal slowdown or post–year-end adjustment compared with Q4 2024’s strong performance. Lower franchise performance and slight shifts across revenue channels might have contributed to this small decline.

    Factory Revenues

    Dropped 5.7% (from $9.349M to $8.811M)

    A decrease in factory-produced sales may indicate reduced demand or inventory adjustments relative to the previous quarter. This smaller decline, compared with Q4 2024's high level, likely reflects operational or market-level factors impacting production distribution.

    Franchise Fees

    Declined 9.6% (from $1.317M to $1.190M)

    The reduction in franchise fees, which are a key revenue driver, could be due to delays or fewer new franchise activations in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, suggesting possible shifts in franchise expansion timing or collection cycles.

    Other Revenue

    Dropped 23.8% (from $1.399M to $1.066M)

    This substantial decrease points toward a marked decline in ancillary or irregular revenue streams. The steep drop indicates that components such as co-brand revenue or other supplemental fees did not perform as well in Q1 2025 as they did in Q4 2024.

    Operating Loss

    Improved by 78% (from ($39.30M) to ($8.57M))

    The dramatic improvement in operating loss reflects effective cost controls and operational efficiencies implemented in Q1 2025 that outweighed the moderate declines in revenue streams. Managing expenses more tightly relative to the previous quarter contributed significantly to this turnaround.

    Net Loss

    Narrowed (from ($67.42M) to ($46.31M))

    The reduction in net loss, despite lower revenue, suggests that the gains in operational efficiency and expense management (as seen in the operating loss improvement) have positively affected the bottom line compared to Q4 2024. This indicates a more focused approach to cost discipline even amid softer revenue performance.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Spin-off of Twin Hospitality Group

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Completion of the spin-off, with Twin Hospitality now trading separately on NASDAQ under the ticker TWNP.

    no prior guidance

    Debt Reduction Commitment

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Commitment to reducing debt by $75 million in 2025, including a minimum of $25 million by late April.

    no prior guidance

    Organic Growth Initiatives

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Plans to open over 100 new locations in 2025, with 17 units already opened year-to-date.

    no prior guidance

    Development Pipeline

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Signed agreements for approximately 1,000 additional locations, expecting to generate approximately $50 million in incremental annual adjusted EBITDA.

    no prior guidance

    Co-branding Strategy

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Focus on opening several more co-branded locations in 2025.

    no prior guidance

    International Expansion

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Growth in international presence, with over 40 locations in Brazil and nearly 25 in Mexico.

    no prior guidance

    Manufacturing Operations

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Aim to increase utilization of the Georgia manufacturing facility to 60% to 70%.

    no prior guidance

    Deleveraging Focus

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Primary focus on deleveraging the balance sheet while executing organic growth opportunities.

    no prior guidance

    Litigation Resolution

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Hopeful resolution of ongoing litigation during the year.

    no prior guidance

    Liquidity Management

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Maintenance of a bond portfolio worth approximately $150 million and plans to raise equity at the Twin Peaks level.

    no prior guidance

    Conversion of Smokey Bones Locations

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Plan to convert approximately 30 of the 58 Smokey Bones locations into Twin Peaks lodges by 2026.

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    New Store Expansion

    Consistently discussed across Q2–Q4 2024 with details on new unit counts (e.g., 92 new restaurants in Q4, 22 in Q3, 24 in Q2), an aggressive pipeline of approximately 1,000 locations, co‑branding efforts, and acknowledged challenges from delays, franchisee financing and construction issues.

    Q1 2025 continued this focus by reporting 23 new units with a 37% increase compared to Q1 2024, a robust development pipeline with a similar 1,000‑unit commitment, and a co‑branding strategy while noting challenges from high interest rates and rising construction costs.

    Consistent growth focus with steady expansion efforts and a robust pipeline; while challenges persist, the sentiment remains optimistic and strategic, reinforcing its potential large impact on future growth.

    Debt Refinancing

    Q2–Q4 2024 discussions detailed refinancing efforts (e.g., Twin Peaks securitization, 30‑year fixed‑rate notes in Q4, plans to monetize assets via IPO or alternative transactions), liquidity management via bond portfolios and ATM programs, and clear deleveraging targets.

    Q1 2025 reiterated refinancing initiatives for the remaining securitizations (targeting Q2/Q3 2025), potential modifications to the Twin Peaks deal, plans for an equity raise for debt reduction, and efforts to capitalize on the Georgia production facility to improve cash flow.

    Stable strategic focus with minor recalibrations due to market volatility; while emphasis remains on deleveraging and refinancing, the sentiment is cautiously positive with an expectation of improved liquidity.

    Brand Performance

    Across Q2–Q4 2024, brand performance was mixed with some segments (e.g., Fazoli’s and QSR brands) facing declines, while others (e.g., Round Table Pizza, Twin Peaks, cookies/ice cream) delivered positive same‑store trends; overall commentary acknowledged challenges in certain segments and optimism for turnaround.

    Q1 2025 emphasized overall same-store sales improvements, with casual dining and digital sales showing positive trends (e.g., 1.6% increase in casual dining, 0.6% for Round Table Pizza, 8% increase for cookies/ice cream), even while noting modest declines in some segments.

    Continued mixed performance with a slightly more optimistic tone in Q1 2025, reflective of incremental improvements despite persistent challenges in certain segments; remains critical to future revenue performance.

    Litigation Risks

    Q2 2024 anticipated resolution within 12–18 months; Q3 2024 noted increased professional fees and G&A pressures; Q4 2024 reported significant cost reductions and expectations of settlements by Q2 2025.

    Q1 2025 reported a slight increase in legal-related G&A expenses (rising to $33 million from $30 million) with management expecting litigation costs to moderate by Q2 2025, indicating ongoing but potentially nearing resolution.

    Persistent challenge with recurring expense pressures but with signs of improvement on the horizon; sentiment is cautiously optimistic as management expects a moderation in legal expenditures soon.

    Conversion Strategy

    In Q2 2024, the initial conversion process from Smokey Bones to Twin Peaks was introduced with plans for the majority to occur in 2025–2026; Q3 2024 showcased successful early conversions (e.g., in Lakeland, Florida) and detailed substantial benefits; Q4 2024 provided specifics on target unit numbers (approximately 30) and noted operational challenges with some leases.

    Q1 2025 confirmed the ongoing conversion strategy with plans to convert about half of the Smokey Bones locations (approx. 30 of 60) into Twin Peaks, while acknowledging operational challenges (e.g., high interest rates, higher construction costs) and clearly articulating the financial impact.

    Strong and ongoing strategic initiative that has matured over time; the approach remains consistent with successful early outcomes though current challenges underscore the need for efficient execution in coming years.

    Cookie Facility EBITDA Improvement

    Q2 2024 mentioned the Georgia facility’s steady performance with set capacity and output metrics (sales around $9.6 million and adjusted EBITDA contribution of $3.8 million); Q3 2024 emphasized incremental EBITDA gains ($50–$60 million potential) once development continues.

    Q1 2025 set a target to boost EBITDA from approximately $15 million to $25 million annually and highlighted further plans to reach a capacity-utilization level that could eventually yield $300+ million in proceeds for debt reduction.

    Consistent operational focus with an enhanced, more bullish target in Q1 2025; continued improvement here could have a significant long‑term impact on debt reduction and overall financial strength.

    Refranchising Benefits

    Q3 2024 mentioned potential refranchising opportunities for Fazoli’s, while Q4 2024 detailed plans to refranchise 57 company‑owned locations as part of transforming towards an almost 100% franchise model.

    Q1 2025 expanded on the benefits by discussing expected debt reduction ($20–$25 million), annual overhead savings ($2.5 million), increased operational flexibility, and continued royalty income from the refranchised stores.

    Evolving and increasingly emphasized strategy aimed at unlocking value and reducing debt; the focus in Q1 2025 reflects a more detailed and beneficial financial outlook, potentially impacting future profitability.

    Attractive M&A Prospects

    Q2 2024 saw discussions of attractive M&A opportunities with favorable pricing and potential to deleverage (e.g., Smoky Bones acquisition at 3–4x cash flow); Q4 2024, however, indicated a more cautious approach with only a couple of strategic targets considered and greater focus on refinancing.

    Q1 2025 mentioned an acquisition strategy centered on unlocking value and reducing leverage with strategic targets, although it was less emphasized relative to organic growth and refinancing than in previous detailed discussions.

    Opportunistic but more cautious; while M&A remains a part of the overall growth strategy, current emphasis has shifted towards organic expansion and deleveraging, suggesting a tempered outlook in the near term.

    Operational Challenges

    Throughout Q2–Q4 2024, operational issues were widely noted—ranging from expense growth due to acquisitions (e.g., Smokey Bones), increased interest and G&A expenses, revenue noise from seasonal factors, and additional non‑cash impairments; cost inflation and higher depreciation also contributed to pressures.

    Q1 2025 continued to face operational challenges including higher interest expenses, lower same-store sales on some segments, and increased overall costs; however, some areas like restaurant and factory costs saw improvements, indicating a mixed but trending environment.

    Persistent headwinds remain with expense pressures and challenges due to cost inflation and operational hiccups; though some cost improvements are evident, this area continues to be a concern that could impact future margins.

    1. Cookie Facility
      Q: Impact of higher utilization at cookie facility?
      A: Management targets an EBITDA rise from $15M to $25M annually—with further potential to unlock over $300M in debt reduction—if utilization increases as planned.

    2. Equity Raise
      Q: Delay timeline for equity raise execution?
      A: They face market volatility with no urgent timeline, expecting the equity raise to complete by Q2/Q3 as conditions improve.

    3. Fazoli's Value
      Q: What value from refranchising Fazoli's?
      A: Refranchising is estimated to yield a 4-6x multiple, roughly $20M–$25M, plus save about $2.5M–$3.5M in overhead annually.

    4. Smokey Bones Impact
      Q: Smokey Bones impact on EBITDA?
      A: The conversion and closure of Smokey Bones are weighing on margins, with a negative impact around a couple million dollars per quarter.

    5. Incremental EBITDA
      Q: Timeframe for additional EBITDA from new stores?
      A: The company expects the incremental $15M of adjusted EBITDA from new stores and factory growth to materialize over the next couple of years.

    6. Consumer Outlook
      Q: What is the consumer value focus outlook?
      A: Despite mixed consumer confidence, management believes that delivering a great dining experience will justify pricing in a challenging market.

    7. Revenue Breakdown
      Q: Beyond same-store declines, what else affected revenue?
      A: Aside from the same-store sales decline and closures at Smokey Bones, revenue adjustments are mainly tied to operational mix changes.

    8. Litigation Costs
      Q: Why did litigation expenses increase this quarter?
      A: Increased professional fees due to pending litigation raised costs, though management expects these expenses to subside by Q2.

    9. CEO Succession
      Q: When will a new full-time CEO be hired?
      A: The executive search is proceeding well, with a new CEO expected to be in place within the current quarter.

    10. Traffic & Checks
      Q: How are Q2 traffic and check averages trending?
      A: Early Q2 data points to modest declines in certain segments while pizza and snacks remain resilient, reflecting varied performance across brands.

    Research analysts covering Fat Brands.